Hurricane Florence

Do as I say and not as I do

Hurricane Florence hit the US coast on September 14th 2018.  A recent post related to the movie “Adrift” advises to avoid sailing in tropical zones during the hurricane season.  I however couldn’t pass on the opportunity to go on a third transat this summer.  Partly because the arrival is in Annapolis and I’ve been hitching for some time to sail to the United States.  But more importantly, it’s an awesome way to test Weather4D Routing & Navigation in real conditions and for an extended period of time.

From “Le Canet” to “Les Canaries”

We left Le Canet en Roussillon (France) on August 13th with “Free Spirit”, a brand new Bali 4.5 to be delivered in Annapolis (USA) for the boat show which will take place from October 4th until October 8th.

It took us 11 days to reach Las Palmas (Canary Islands).  There wasn’t much wind on the Mediterranean Sea except when we reached Gibraltar where we stopped for a night.  The scenery was nonetheless spectacular especially in the Torrox area in Spain.

Bali 4.5

Beautiful Mediterranean scenery

Once in the Canaries, the engines needed the 50 hour tune up, a refuel and we needed fresh groceries before crossing. So far so good.

Las Palmas Market

Onto Bermuda and Annapolis?

We left Las Palmas on August 25th and were glad to have eventually reached good winds.  For 5 straight days, we averaged 7.5 knots and were hopeful to cross within 16-17 days.  I had never been that fast before on a regular cruising boat for such a long period of time.

Here is Hurricane Florence

We had covered about the third of the way to Bermuda islands where we were planning to stop when we spotted a nascent tropical depression near the coast of Guinea with Weather4D. A couple of days later, that depression became a tropical storm named “Florence”.  It was growing quickly to become a hurricane and was heading West just like us although we were north of the system.  We used the Weather4D routing simulation feature to anticipate how the days ahead could look like.  It clearly was no longer business as usual.

Why is it a threat?

The three main reasons why hurricanes are a threat are because they are incredibly powerful.  Ships aren’t designed to resist to so much power and violence.  They move 2 to 3 times faster than the average cruising boat and their trajectory is hardly predictable.  At best one could hope to be behind them and preferably be close enough to the Equator as this zone isn’t reachable by hurricanes.

What do we do?

We were quite up North and the early previsions were suggesting we were far enough to stay ahead and cut the hurricane path.  But what if Florence decided to move forward West and turn North 2 or 3 days later that predicted?  There would be no way to escape and we’d be caught in it.  This option was obviously rejected.  The safest thing was to slow down, make sure to stay at least 350 NM away from the center and let the hurricane pass ahead of us.  And so we did.  For a couple of days we were idle in the middle of the ocean dissecting weather forecasts. Regularly, we were reminding ourselves that drifting 15 nm a day instead of sailing almost 170 NM, given the perfect wind conditions we had, was the right thing to do.

Murphy’s law

Then the anemometer started behaving in a funky way.  The apparent wind measure became erratic at first and displayed 0 kts after a while.  That meant we could no longer use the pilot in wind mode.  Then two new nascent tropical storms emerged near the New Guinean coast.  Then we lost our satellite connection on September 1st and hence were no longer to download GRIBs to Weather4D nor were we able to email friends and family ashore.  It was the typical scenario where a few little things start breaking down in cascade which potentially leads to a very bad situation.  With a 16 day forecast which is reliable for the 5 first days, we were quickly going to be “weather blind” with three cyclonic systems.  Oops!

What are the options?

The last forecast showed we could “in theory” go ahead of the hurricane Florence.  We were of course absolutely not going down that path.  But what should we do after letting Florence pass us?  Continue the crossing without access to weather information and a pilot which could no longer work in wind mode?  That wasn’t a realistic option either.  Going back to Las Palmas ?  The wind wasn’t blowing in the right direction to make the trip back an easy one.  Luckily the Azores were “only” 600 NM away and we could reach them safely within 5 or 6 days.  We arrived in Horta on September 6 and have taken the time to work on all the glitches that came up until now.

Heading to the Azores

Horta, Faial, Azores

Lessons learnt

On a boat, even when things go well, when they start going wrong, they go worse.

Looking back at our decision making process, there were a couple of things which prevented us from putting ourselves in an hazardous situation:

Crew and boat safety remained the number #1 priority versus being on time in Annapolis.

While we could deal with a defective autopilot, no access to weather information meant heading to the nearest shore.

What’s next

We’re still in Horta and waiting for Helene, the fourth cyclonic system currently on the Atlantic to pass along.  We will arrive in Annapolis after October 8th, miss the boat show and that’s OK.  We hope to resume our route on Monday or Tuesday.  It all depends on the weather of course!

The post Dealing with hurricane Florence appeared first on Weather4D.

Adrift

Adrift story begins on September 23, 1983.  Tami Oldham (Shailene Woodley) and Richard Sharp (Sam Claflin) leave Tahiti.  They believe this will be a side trip on their cruise around the South Pacific and New Zealand.

Adrift, a drama adventure movie about sailing the high seas

A British couple hired them in Papeete to deliver their 44-foot yacht, Hazana, to San Diego while the couple flies home on a family emergency. However, Tami and Richard couldn’t anticipate they would be sailing directly into Raymond, one of the most catastrophic hurricanes in recorded history.

In the movie, Tami awakens in aftermath of the storm to find Richard badly injured and their boat in ruins. With no hope of rescue, Tami must find the strength and determination to save herself and the only man she has ever loved.

Based on a true story

Real life wasn’t as forgiving as the movie.  Richard Sharp lost his life, Tami Oldham spent 41 days in survival mode alone on the ocean while suffering severe head injuries.  It took her years to cope with the trauma caused by the loss of her fiancé and the violence of the hurricane.

Tami Oldham Ashcraft and Richard Sharp

Oldham eventually wrote the story of her ordeal in a book titled “Red Sky In Mourning: The True Story Of A Woman’s Courage And Survival At Sea” from which Adrift is inspired.

Why did this happen in the first place?

Back in the 1980s, weather forecasting and telecommunications weren’t as advanced as they are today by any means.  Sailors used to listen to radio broadcasts on shortwave receivers, a boat makes noise at sea, and there wasn’t a replay button in case part of the weather forecast wasn’t fully heard or understood.

C Crane CCRadio-SW

In 1978, the first hurricane-tracking model based on atmospheric dynamics – the movable fine-mesh (MFM) model – began operating.  It was actually not until well in the 1980s that numerical weather prediction gained credibility.  It consistently outperformed statistical models only in the 1990s. 

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The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model was used for research purposes from 1973.  Later in the mid-1980s, it became an operational model.  The National Weather Service started using this model in 1995 and kept improving it.

Ocean grid in the 1980s

Ocean grid in 2009

This is more than 10 years after Tami and Richard relied on statistical models received from the weather channel WWV aboard Hazana.  While there were some hints, it wasn’t obvious to decipher what was in the making even four days before they got hit by the hurricane.  It seems there was a lot of unknown : “Richard later scribbled ‘Cyclonic’? in the logbook” —  Tami describes Richard as not appearing overly concerned and they continue their route North East to San Diego.

They started paying close attention to the depression on October 9th.  It was then 1300 NM away, moving West at 12 knots towards them, almost twice their boat’s max speed.

Hurricane Raymond 1983

Within 48 hours, Raymond’s trajectory changed and it was heading further to the Northwest.  Tami and Richard simply could not escape it at that point.

Hurricane Raymond track 1983

Unfortunately the book doesn’t explain the rationale to make the decision to head North instead of South to get closer to the safer Equatorial zone.  Would have they been short on food, water and fuel in that case?

What has changed since 1983?

Three fundamental things have dramatically improved safety at sea 

• Weather models have become way more sophisticated and hence forecasts are more accurate.
• GRIB files and satellites make weather models accessible anywhere at anytime
• One no longer needs to decipher an audio message coming from a shortwave radio.  Rich animated graphic representations of wind, waves and currents have made weather forecasts incredibly precise and intuitive.  Furthermore, the data can be crunched to produce simulations and suggest optimal routes.

What remains the same?

• The need to analyze forecast data to anticipate the worst possible conditions.  Departure date and time must depend on weather conditions to be on the safe side.
• The need to do it at least once a day and to adjust the route if necessary.
• While routing calculation estimates x numbers of days at sea, add 15-20% to that value and make it your benchmark for food, water and fuel supplies.
• Avoid sailing in tropical regions during hurricane season.  My last major sailing trip was to deliver a 42 footer catamaran from Cuba to France.  I got the offer on a Saturday and landed in Havana just three days later.  It was late June and hurricane season was around the corner.  It was consequently much safer to go as early as possible with a crew of two rather than spending time recruiting a crew of four which would have delayed our departure and potentially exposed us to extreme weather.

Hazana versus Raymond locations in 1983 layered with 06/07/2018 GFS model

 

Sources:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6306064/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Raymond
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2003-03-19/features/0303180492_1_sailing-cabin-south-pacific
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-modeling

 

The post Adrift: What changed since 1983? appeared first on Weather4D.